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Bingo Bobbins's avatar

White pill if true.

The doomer in me posits another scenario - the regime is confident it has contained the emergent populist threat, and feels comfortable placating conservatives by throwing them a rhetorical bone (eh, ya you're right, we rigged the election) without really holding anyone accountable

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Spouting Thomas's avatar

Good thought and not impossible, but I don't think he has that good an insight into the result. His data can surely serve as a sentiment indicator, but it would be a lot more useful in a world where we don't have polls. Instead it's a very messy indicator that by itself is worse than good poll analysis. At best, it has value as a minor supplement to those polls. I'd guess it gives you an edge worth a few percentage points in the prediction markets.

I honestly think the man has had a change of heart, just as Musk has, but not as large (they haven't taken a kid from Zuck, yet). 4 more years of the Democrats beating up on him and everything he stands for, he's had enough of going to bat for them. Simple as that.

Kamala probably wins because this thing is close, which means it comes down to turnout. All the reports I've heard from the frontlines from both sides say that Democrats have much better ground game this year. The RNC is a shell of its former self.

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